Usually, in a world championship duel, the defending champion is the favourite. In the upcoming chess battle of supremacy, it is going to be different. Defending champion Ding Liren of China is the underdog. Favourite is the 18-year-old D Gukesh of India. This means the weight of expectations is more on him.
Magnus Carlsen and Viswanathan Anand are among the ones who reckon Gukesh has an edge. The first-ever clash of this stature featuring two Asians will take place in Singapore from November 25 to December 13. Not many such finals had generated this kind of frenzy in the build-up.
Not just the last two world champions before Ding, most from the fraternity have concluded that on form, the Indian looks head and shoulders above his opponent. Ding has fallen from an Elo rating of 2788 — when he became the 17th world champion by defeating Ian Nepomniachtchi in April last year — to 2728 in the November ratings list. A former 2800-plus player, he is 27th in the world right now. In May, he was seventh with 2762.
Gukesh was one point above him at that time at 2763. Ranked sixth then, he has improved his credentials since. Numerically, his current world ranking of fifth or Elo rating of 2783 doesn’t show a rapid rise from May, but Gukesh has been one of the biggest of the movers and shakers of late. A standout Chess Olympiad, where Ding was not even a shadow of himself, is making the Indian the favourite in Singapore. Even the Chinese has been quoted as saying that he is afraid of ‘losing badly’.
That is where this story starts. It’s very uncommon for a defending world champion to admit that he or she is wary of a thrashing. Professional sportspersons aren’t taught to express feelings in that manner. Unless exceptionally humble or low in self-esteem, they don’t say that they don’t stand a chance. Coming from a reigning champion up against an 18-year-old, this was surprising.
That is why there is reason to think that Ding his keeping his cards close to his chest. His performance may not be a necessary indicator of what he is capable of. It’s possible that he performed or under-performed strategically, in the recent past, to become the underdog. That puts enormous pressure in a massive match on a teenager, who has tasted little other than success since winning the Candidates event in April. If true, it is a great tactic to put pressure on a youngster playing the biggest game of his life.
“Yeah, could be. Could be. I don’t know,” said World No. 25 Richard Rapport, when asked if Ding was deliberately not giving his best so that he can come up with a surprise in Singapore.The Hungarian was a part of Ding’s team during the victorious world championship campaign last year. Speaking to RevSportz during the Global Chess League, Rapport didn’t get deeper into it.
“People are saying many things. People also said many things last time, like Ian is a huge favourite. We all know how that turned up. So these things are very random. And being at a distance right now, I wouldn’t indulge in guessing or pointing fingers. I did help Ding Liren in the previous match. It will be unethical for me to say more, because we are still on friendly terms,” Rapport said.
Gukesh suffered his first defeat in the classical format after 38 games on October 24, in the European Club Cup 2024. His conqueror was Russian Dmitry Andreikin, ranked 36th in the world. Nobody knows what Ding has done after the Chess Olympiad in September. Everyone is aware of almost every step taken by the youngest-ever world championship challenger from India.
Ding had trailed and equalised thrice in last year’s final which he won on tie-breaker. There is evidence of who have handled pressure better. Gukesh, while he could have gone into this match as a natural underdog, is carrying the weight of expectations instead. That’s how it has got programmed and it can’t be undone. Fairly unusual world chess championship loading.