-Ritam Dey in Madrid
The winners of the last two Champions League trophies will battle it out for survival in the knockout rounds for the Round of 16 this season, after both failed to manage automatic qualification for the latter stages. In a fixture that has now become a recurring occurrence, Manchester City and Real Madrid face each other for the third straight season, only the fourth such instance in seven decades.
But this time feels different, mainly because of what’s at stake. Two past champions couldn’t finish in the top eight of the competition in the newly introduced format, while teams like LOSC Lille and Aston Villa – with much lower club coefficients – did. Real Madrid have constantly been hit with injury concerns this season, with almost the entire first-choice back four out of action. Man City, on the other hand, lost Rodri, their talisman and Ballon d’Or winner, in September and have struggled for form. They are out of the title race in England, having won the last four, and have not kept a clean sheet in five consecutive matches.
The Opta supercomputer leans marginally in favour of a home victory, with 42.7 per cent of the 10,000 pre-match projections showing Manchester City winning,. While a draw, which would set up a winner-take-all clash at the Santiago Bernabéu, has a 24.3 per cent probability, Madrid are rated a 33 per cent chance to win.
Madrid have eliminated City from the knockout rounds three times, and goal seem inevitable given the defensive problems in both teams. After two of the worst months of Pep Guardiola’s storied coaching career, City infused their squad with several top buys in the January transfer window, most notably the promising Egyptian Omar Marmoush. Madrid on the other hand, decided against new signings despite considerable interest in Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold.
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Carlo Ancelotti, who has won the competition an unprecedented five times, seems to have enough trust in his squad, although he was vocal in stating that the team currently is in an emergency situation. Relying heavily on the forwards, Ancelotti’s ‘new galacticos’ are now once again looking to Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham to drive them through this existential crisis in a tournament that they have dominated like no other team.
Coming off a narrow 2-1 FA Cup win against Leyton Orient, City will look to build an advantage ahead of the return leg at the Bernabeu. Real Madrid need to return to winning ways after drawing at home against Atletico Madrid in the derby. What awaits could be a match-up for the ages, only, instead of the final or the semi-final, it has now become an appetiser for the main course.
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