Atreyo Mukhopadhyay
Can Arjun Erigaisi qualify for Candidates 2026? He couldn’t make it in 2024, when a record number of three Indians made the cut. One of the handful of players in history to have crossed the 2800 mark in Elo ratings, an individual gold-winner at the Olympiad last year and a career-best ranking of world No. 3 — at 22, he has achieved things that can take a lifetime. Yet, there is a vacuum.
The FIDE World Cup in Goa from October 30 to November 27 is Erigaisi’s best chance to fill that gap. The biggest reward in this knockout event is not the winner’s cheque. It offers Candidates berths to the top three. For most of the participants, that is the main incentive. Right now, the race is on to qualify for the 2026 edition of the eight-player tournament, the winner of which will challenge world champion D Gukesh.
As classified by the world governing body, there are five qualification routes. Path A is the FIDE Circuit 2024 ranking list. Fabiano Caruana of the USA has booked that berth. Path C is the Grand Swiss Open. Anish Giri of the Netherlands and German outsider Matthias Bluebaum have qualified through that channel. Path B is the FIDE World Cup. Path D is for the topper of the FIDE Circuit 2025. Through Path E, the highest-ranked player from August 1 to January 1, 2026, seals his spot.
It’s more or less certain that barring a major mishap, R Praggnandhaa is going to seal Path D. He has a comfortable lead over his nearest rivals. After having qualified for Candidates 2024 through the 2023 World Cup where he finished runner-up, Pragg looks set for a second go. In Path E, it’s just the beginning. Nicknamed ‘Mad Man’ by Magnus Carlsen for his tendency to make bold moves, Erigaisi may or may not succeed in sealing that slot. That leaves the World Cup as his best opportunity.
He should have good memories of the 2023 edition, where he beat players rated above him at the time to reach the quarter-finals. Pragg halted his march. By then, he had become a part of a famous Indian quartet that clinched an unprecedented four last-eight spots. A meteoric rise followed and although not in the headlines as often as Gukesh or Pragg, Erigaisi has remained ahead of them in rankings. He has a 6-1 head-to-head record against the world champion and he is the highest-rated player in the Goa World Cup.
These numbers, however, will be of little consolation if Erigaisi misses the bus again. He was in contention in the 2024 FIDE Circuit till the end before being edged out by Caruana. This year has been unspectacular, but steady. In the company of the elite for the first time — after having made a name for himself as the slayer of lower-ranked opponents — Erigaisi has held his own. After the top three of Carlsen, Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura, this Indian is the only other player to have stayed in the top-10 until October since the start of the year.
On the board, he is a rare figure who uses his left hand to make moves and note them down. His game and approach towards chess suggests that is not the only thing unusual about him. He is known to be fearless and calm under pressure. At that level, it’s generally a clash of equals unless one of the players is Carlsen. Mental strength makes a difference in such cases and Erigaisi has to summon a lot of it to tick this box.
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