The first men’s semifinal at the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open brings together two players on very different journeys — Francisco Cerúndolo, the Argentine in the form of his life, and Casper Ruud, the seasoned Norwegian trying to reclaim his place in the top 10. This clash between consistency and experience is a battle for a first Madrid final and possibly a deeper tilt toward Roland-Garros.
Cerúndolo came into Madrid already leading the ATP Tour in match wins for the season, and his run here has only solidified his status as one of the most dependable performers in 2025. On the other side is Ruud, who, despite some recent setbacks, has made a strong rebound — taking out Daniil Medvedev in dominant fashion to book his semifinal berth.
Cerúndolo’s Breakthrough Momentum
Francisco Cerúndolo’s three-set win over Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinals was more than just a gritty effort — it was a career statement. By reaching the semifinals, the Argentine avoided consecutive quarterfinal exits in Madrid and registered his best-ever performance at the Masters 1000 level.
With 24 main-draw wins this season, Cerúndolo leads the ATP in tour-level victories — a testament to both his physical endurance and tactical discipline. His run includes five wins over top-20 opponents in 2025, showing he’s not just consistent, but competitive at the highest level. A maiden Masters title remains elusive, but this week could change that narrative.
Ruud’s Clay Pedigree and Top-10 Chase
Casper Ruud’s 2025 season has been a mixed bag, but his numbers against the very best remain elite. His straight-sets victory over Medvedev in the quarterfinals marked his eighth win over top-10 opponents in his last 12 attempts — a staggering record that shows just how dangerous he remains on his day.
Ruud has now won all seven of his quarterfinals at clay-court Masters events, but semifinals haven’t been as kind. With a 1-5 record at this stage, including defeats at key stops like Rome and Madrid, he’ll be aiming to build on his lone semifinal win over Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo last year.
Currently ranked No. 15, a spot in Sunday’s final would see Ruud crack back into the top 10 in the live rankings — a much-needed morale boost after early exits in Monte Carlo and Barcelona dented his 2024 point defense.
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Head-to-Head and Match Dynamics
The head-to-head between Cerúndolo and Ruud is narrowly in the Argentine’s favour at 5-3, with their clay-court battles evenly split at 2-2. While Ruud holds the edge in terms of experience and deep-draw pedigree, Cerúndolo’s form and confidence have made him the man to beat this week.
Cerúndolo’s mix of forehand aggression and court coverage has proved hard to crack, but Ruud’s composure and heavy topspin baseline game can be lethal in Madrid’s altitude. If Ruud can control the rhythm early, he might just turn the tide on his poor semifinal record. But if Cerúndolo rides the wave of belief and stays clinical in big moments, his wait for a first Masters final could finally end.
Both players have their eyes firmly set on something bigger — for Cerúndolo, a first-ever Masters 1000 title and a validation of his season-long form; for Ruud, redemption, resurgence, and a top-10 return. With the stakes high and momentum vs experience at play, this semifinal promises firepower, finesse, and plenty of drama under the Madrid sun. Who will step up and earn their shot at glory?
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