A still picture can sometimes give small hints as to what actually took place in an event. In the last over of South Africa’s innings, David Miller deposited a hit-me delivery from Jimmy Neesham over the fine-leg fence. The camera’s focus soon shifted to Tom Latham, the New Zealand skipper. He seemed lost in his thoughts as South Africa cantered past the 350-run mark. Just a couple of hours later, Latham was seen trudging back to the pavilion with his head down after being dismissed by Kagiso Rabada. The only time Latham looked up right through that walk was to confirm whether the catch was taken cleanly.
Those two stills told the story of New Zealand’s chastening experience in the game against South Africa. Right from the decision to bowl first against a side that is renowned for setting up monstrous targets to New Zealand’s abject display with both the bat and ball, hardly anything went right for the Black Caps.
Things didn’t always seem that way. Just press the rewind button and take a flight back to the last over of the Australia-New Zealand game. Mitchell Starc had gifted away five wides and the equation suddenly read 13 off 5 deliveries – Very much possible with Neesham still at the crease. Instead, Australia sealed the thriller on the back of some desperate fielding efforts.
If New Zealand had won that game, the confidence of the side would have soared sky high. The camp would have felt as though from there on, they could win from any given situation. You can turn the pages of history to find numerous examples of an athlete or a group of players raising their game by a few notches after emerging victorious in a hard-fought encounter.
Confidence isn’t a tonic that can be bought from a grocery shop. For further evidence, just glance through Chris Woakes’ thoughts after England slipped to yet another loss in the ongoing World Cup. “If we could buy some confidence at the minute, we would spend a lot of money on it,” he told Sky Sports.
That gut-wrenching loss to Australia would have deflated New Zealand quite a bit. Subsequently, a humbling defeat to South Africa would have eroded their conviction further. So, how does the immediate future look like for New Zealand?
On the bright side, New Zealand’s destiny lies very much in their own hands. A win against Pakistan in Bengaluru, and New Zealand would find themselves closer to locating the right key to open the semi-final door. A defeat would all but put Pakistan out of contention. On paper, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Netherlands also have outside chances of making it to the last four.
New Zealand also have a healthy net run-rate of 0.484. In fact, the difference in the NRR between New Zealand and other contenders for fourth spot is considerable. Just to give a better perspective, in an imaginary sense, if Pakistan finished with 300 batting first, then they would need to skittle out New Zealand for a score of around 215 to ensure that they are on par with the Black Caps. Even if New Zealand hurtle to defeat in that game, they could still beat Sri Lanka and hope to chart out a safe path to the semifinals.
Leave aside all those permutations and combinations for a minute. New Zealand have something else to worry about – a lengthy list of injuries. Mark Chapman, Lockie Ferguson and Kane Williamson have been laid low by injuries during the tournament. After the game against South Africa, the backroom staff would have been sweating over Matt Henry’s hamstring injury. In some better news, Neesham was cleared of any fracture on his wrist.
With his tried-and-tested weapons of scrambled seam and a hint of swing, Henry has provided crucial breakthroughs with the new ball. Ferguson’s pace, supplemented by hit-the-deck skills, gives New Zealand some buffer in the middle overs.
New Zealand have already added Kyle Jamieson as a cover for Henry. Since returning from a recurring back injury, Jamieson has looked bereft of self-belief. He also comes across as better suited for the longest format. New Zealand could have considered Milne. The pace bowler has that extra bit of zing in his bowling and does pound the deck hard. He also made a successful return from a hamstring issue in England by bagging a four-for in Bangladesh.
In the history books, an asterisk or a footnote is usually seen alongside New Zealand – a side that punches above their weight in ICC tournaments. Maybe Latham, the acting captain, is that player who will lead from the front. Perhaps Rachin Ravindra’s batting will once again burn bright. Mitchell Santner, the quiet achiever, could also be the game-breaker. Or it is time for Williamson to return from his injury and play an incandescent knock. At a crunch time in the 2023 World Cup, New Zealand need a hero or two to take on the mantle.