Few know better than Brad Hogg what it takes to win a World Cup. An integral part of Australian teams that won the tournament in 2003 and 2007, his role was especially crucial in 2003 when he had to take on the spin mantle after Shane Warne’s drugs ban. With extensive experience of playing in India and tremendous knowledge of Indian conditions, Hogg, who took 156 ODI wickets with his left-arm wrist-spin, is better equipped than most to predict how the 2023 World Cup will pan out. In this fascinating conversation with Boria Majumdar in the new World Cup series of Backstage with Boria, he runs the rule over the leading teams, assesses the role of spinners like Kuldeep Yadav and looks at the challenges that Rohit Sharma will face, as captain and opening batter.
Excerpts from a no-hold-barred chat:
Boria: Both India and Australia have won World Cups on Indian soils. Which of them do you think could go all the way again?
Hogg: Definitely, India will have the advantage of playing on home soil, but Australia have depth in their side. They have a great fast bowling attack with Mitchell Starc who can do a bit of a damage with the new ball. We have also got a spinner in Adam Zampa, and he does control the middle overs. We have quite a few all-rounders – Cameron Green and Mitchell Marsh can bowl bit of medium pace as well, and can be explosive with the bat. We’ve got Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis and Ashton Agar as well. We’ve got depth in that middle order, and a dominant top order as well. I think Travis Head is going to open the batting with David Warner and that will get us off to a great start. Head is a very aggressive batter, and you need someone like him at the top of the order. So, if I am looking at all the teams in this World Cup, I think Australia are the only team that can knock India out of the World Cup. I am very confident with the team we got. They have had success in the World Test Championship and the Ashes. They seem as though they are very switched on. I think it’s going to be a great contest. I am also looking at the Indian batting line-up. It is a very explosive batting line-up. Can you put Shreyas Iyer in there? Is KL Rahul going to be fit? Without Rishabh Pant, you need Rahul to keep. I will be quite interested in who is going to be in that middle order. I think it will be Ravindra Jadeja as he is a slightly better batter than Axar Patel. The only question marks there is whether they go with Shardul Thakur.
Boria: Under pressure, how do you rate Rohit Sharma as captain?
Hogg: When you are under pressure, you need other teammates to back you. You need Virat Kohli to step up, maybe Rahul behind the stumps as he has got a lot of captaincy experience. Just to help him to take that pressure off. In the bowling department, bowlers need to stand up, make the decisions by themselves. Going back to the 2003 World Cup, we lost Shane Warne. I was the front-line spinner. There was a lot of pressure on me. We just sat down as to how we would approach the competition. We had done all the preparation. It was how I could benefit the team. I was the weak link in that team. I was entrusted to keep the opposition batsman quiet and take the pressure off the other experienced bowlers. It boils down to who is going to be playing certain roles. So, it was all set up before the tournament actually started. You’ve got your team going in there knowing their exact roles.
EXCLUSIVE:
The contest between Shaheen against the Indian top three will be decisive: Brad Hogg on Backstage with Boria.
The former World Cup winning Australian leg spinner opens up on his top four for the World Cup, Virat Kohli ‘s potential, Pakistan’s fast bowlers, Shaheen… pic.twitter.com/gj9e7u0Ol8
— RevSportz (@RevSportz) August 30, 2023
Boria: Virat Kohli looks to be back to his best after a lean patch.
Hogg: I was looking at Virat Kohli’s stats the other day. Sachin Tendulkar has got a slightly better conversion rate of 100s. Kohli’s got a better record. I just think he has got his hunger back and a little bit of pressure taken off him. I think he’s got unfinished business, and that’s probably the big danger for opposition teams. That innings against Pakistan here at the MCG, hitting Haris Rauf back over his head off a good length – That was the best shot that I have ever seen in cricket. It was brilliant. Fans have got to realise that there is a lot of pressure on Virat Kohli. He also can have ups and downs. Even the great Sachin Tendulkar had ups and downs. When he has that right frame of mind and the pressure off his back, we have seen a dominant Virat Kohli. I am not worried about the Indian batting. I am probably worried about the Indian bowling attack. It is their bowling which doesn’t get them off to a good start.
Boria: What will be the spinners’ role in this tournament?
Hogg: It will be extremely important. With India, they have got so many options. Do they go with Kuldeep Yadav or Yuzvendra Chahal? It’s a mix-n-match balance. Go with someone who has got a better strike-rate, and wickets in those middle overs. I would like to go down that path. Or you play a defensive spinner at the other end, between Axar Patel and Jadeja? Who do you go with there? I am really looking forward to watching Pakistan’s spinners in the competition. They have got a couple of high-quality spinners, and also got batting depth. I think Pakistan will also be one of the strong contenders as well.
Boria: Like the rest of the world, are you also looking ahead to India-Pakistan?
Hogg: I will definitely be watching it. It is one of the biggest contests that we can have. Look, politics gets in the way in sport everywhere. It’s here in Australia, England everywhere. We are just missing the rivalry between the two countries on the cricket field. It will be better for Pakistan as well because they will get the exposure. We want those contests to happen. India has a more dominant batting. Pakistan, with their pace attack, have a slight advantage especially with the left-arm pace of Shaheen Afridi. He is a quality bowler. When you have a left-arm fast bowler who swings the ball with pace and gets them to come in to the right-handers, it does make it difficult.
Boria: How do you see Shaheen versus Rohit shaping up?
Hogg: I think Shaheen will have a chance with the deliveries that come in against right-handers. If Pakistan can expose Virat Kohli early in the contest against the new ball in front of Shaheen Afridi, the contest between Shaheen and the Indian top three will be decisive. So, for me, that’s going to be where the game will be won and lost between India and Pakistan.
Boria: Who do you have in your top four, making the semifinals?
Hogg: Well, West Indies are out of it. I am loving the Netherlands, and they might upset a team or two. Maybe South Africa, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka won’t be involved in the top four. England too might not make it to the last four as they do not have a stable middle order. They don’t have [a match-fit] Jofra Archer, and I just don’t think they know what their bowling combination will be. We are not going to see a dominant England. They rely too heavily on their top three. I don’t think their middle order has enough experience. Pakistan, with their spin and pace strength, will be very good defensively. Their batters aren’t aggressive enough. Australia will be going in as favourites. They have enough variety in the middle order. India, on their home soil, with powerful batting and bowling. South Africa can be the biggest surprise package. Keshav Maharaj can play a huge role. They have quality batting depth, and two fiery pace bowlers in Anrich Nortje and Kagiso Rabada. So, South Africa, for me, is the team that could upset India and Australia.
Boria: What kind of impact could Kuldeep, a bowler of your type, have for India?
Hogg: He had a great IPL this year. He has come back well. What defines a player is when someone has been dropped. He has been out of the game, worked on his action. He is not falling away as much. He is now getting more revolutions on the ball, and drift as well. I think Rohit Sharma captains him well. He is a fighter. I absolutely love the way he gone about it. Just love the way he has come back into that team and performed straight away. I think he will play a big part in the World Cup. I’d play Kuldeep against Australia.
Boria: Finally, do you think the IPL and the experience that overseas players have of it, negates home advantage?
Hogg: It will push India back slightly. If it was a T20 World Cup, it would have been even bigger. For me, in a 50-over game, IPL experience will not make too much of a difference.
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