How do you win a Test series in South Africa? This question has perhaps turned out to be one of the biggest jigsaw puzzles for think-tanks around the cricketing landscape. Analysts and coaches would have scrutinised videos and zoomed in on information to develop different hypotheses, but the story for many teams has remained the same – slipping to series defeats in the Rainbow Nation.
So, will it change for India this time around? What could be the likely conditions that they encounter at the two venues for the series – Centurion and Cape Town? Let’s examine further to have a better understanding of the bigger picture.
Centurion
The first Test at this venue was played between England and South Africa only in November 1995. The administrators in particular wouldn’t have fond memories of that game as around three and a half days was washed out because of rain. In fact, by Day 3, the Hennops river, nearby to the stadium, had burst open.
Returning to the topic on hand, fast bowlers have generally ruled the roost in Centurion. In fact, 18 out of the top 20 wicket-takers at the ground are pace bowlers. The two spinners in the list are Muttiah Muralitharan, the highest wicket-taker in Test cricket, and Paul Harris, the left-arm spinner from South Africa.
Seven of Harris’ 13 wickets at the venue came in a single Test against England in 2009-10. Incidentally, England’s batters were largely dismissed by defensive lines bowled outside the line of leg stump. In the same game, Graeme Swann, the England off-spinner, bagged a five-for but he ended up giving away 201 runs in total. So, the stats aren’t exactly in the favour of spinners for India to pick both Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.
So, what works for fast bowlers then? For starters, it is just lazy analysis to compare the conditions in Australia with South Africa. As KL Rahul once said: “I haven’t played a lot of games in South Africa, but my experience is that the pitches could be challenging because of the tennis-ball bounce. We have played in Australia, where the pitches are fast and bouncy. But here, it (the pitch) can be a bit spongy for the first couple of days.”
The spongy bounce on offer, especially on the opening two days, could mean the ball stops on the batter a touch. The South African tracks also offer quite a bit of seam movement, and in Centurion, the cracks open up when the sun beats down on the pitch. Why does the pitch crack up in Centurion? Perhaps the soil is a touch dry underneath? Maybe the grass roots aren’t exactly live to keep the track together?
Let’s delve a little deeper into the second point. A few locals on the Highveld believe the wind doesn’t really blow during the nighttime between May to August. As a result, there could be ice crystals around, which in turn doesn’t help the grass to grow. Subsequently, when cricket is played, the grass would be just about recuperating and tends to respond poorly to wear and tear.
Whatever is the case, winning the toss and batting first plays a significant role in Centurion, because of the cracks. Out of the last 10 matches played at the ground, eight have been won by the team batting first. When India toured South Africa in 2017-18, they were at the receiving end as they lost the toss and the visitors slid to a defeat.
From India’s perspective, the poignant moment of that match was Virat Kohli, the centurion in the first innings, being dismissed to a delivery from Lungi Ngidi that hit one of the cracks and kept slightly low. Some four years later, South Africa had to bear the brunt of losing the toss, with India posting their maiden Test win in Centurion.
From the above-mentioned points, it is quite evident that the Indian seamers have to regularly hit the seam/hit the pitch hard. It shouldn’t be a major surprise that Mohammed Shami has been the mainstay of the Indian pace attack in Centurion; he invariably hits the seam by presenting an excellent seam position. He has taken 13 wickets at 16.46 in Centurion. Jasprit Bumrah, who is also renowned for hitting the seam, has a good record. Unfortunately for India, Shami has been ruled out of the upcoming series with an ankle problem.
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🚨Virat Kohli to join the Indian team on December 24 ahead of the Boxing Day Test in Centurion. And Sarfaraz Khan smashes a blistering century in the intra-squad match.@ThumsUpOfficial @CricSubhayan #SAvIND #BoxingDay pic.twitter.com/5edzDbcm5H
— RevSportz (@RevSportz) December 22, 2023
The general perception is that Newlands does assist the spinners to an extent. Is this hypothesis true? Perhaps it used to help the spinners a little more during another time. Out of the top 20 wicket-takers at the ground, eight have been spinners. However, if you scratch the outside coating, Hugh Tayfield, Colin Blythe, Jonny Briggs and Albert Vogler played their cricket during a bygone era. That leaves Shane Warne, Harris, Paul Adams and Nicky Boje, although none of them played competitive cricket in the last 12 years.
As further evidence, in the last five Test matches played at the venue, only 17 wickets have been taken by the spinners. 14 of them came over a couple of Tests played between Australia and South Africa in 2017-18 and England and South Africa in 2019-20. In the 2019-20 Test, the track seemed to get a touch dry by days 4 and 5, allowing Ben Stokes and James Anderson to generate swing with the old ball, coupled with Dom Bess and Joe Denly extracting some turn. Yes, there was a time when Saeed Ajmal found considerable assistance from the Cape Town surface, but a decade has passed by since then.
So, what could be the likely conditions for the Cape Town Test? The pitch could provide spongy bounce and just enough movement off the pitch. The occasional track might turn out to be on the drier side. The last two times India played at the venue, Evan Flint, the curator, left a covering of grass. In 2021-22, the grass cover was relatively less but it still darted around enough off the pitch. Compared to Centurion, there could be relatively less pace off the wicket. Indentations too might be fewer in comparative terms.
Toss factor: Since the start of 2013, four of the matches have been won by the team batting second and five by the side batting first, while one game has ended in a draw. So, that again indicates the batters won’t necessarily encounter too many indentations in the last innings. It seemed to misbehave a little more, however, when the taller bowlers from South Africa pounded the pitch hard in 2021-22.
From India’s point of view, Javagal Srinath, Anil Kumble and Bumrah have taken the most Test wickets at the ground. Two of them have retired, while Bumrah has largely excelled on the back of once again hitting the seam in order to extract variable bounce/movement off the pitch.
All said and done about the conditions at the two venues, eventually, it comes down to how well both teams – India and South Africa – execute their plans over the course of the Test match.
Also Read: SA v IND: Batting first and pace aces – the story of India’s Test wins in South Africa