Usually, when a title race is over in April – and for all practical purposes, it was done by March – the last few weeks of the league season can be a damp squib. Not so in the English Premier League (EPL) this year. Such are the riches promised by the revamped UEFA Champions League that not qualifying for it could set an ambitious club on the road to oblivion.
Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur, who contest the Europa League final in Bilbao tonight, will bank around £32 million in all if they win the competition. The far greater reward is the Champions League spot it guarantees. To put things into perspective, France’s Lille earned £67.63m for making the last 16 of UEFA’s flagship competition.
In the EPL, the likes of Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest have enjoyed superb seasons, frequently bloodying the noses of more fancied sides. But both are skirting the line as far as the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) are concerned. Newcastle United and Chelsea too could face awkward PSR questions and decisions if they don’t finish in the top 5.
So far, only Liverpool, runaway champions, and Arsenal – on 71 points – are guaranteed a spot in the Champions League. Manchester City’s 3-1 win over Bournemouth on Tuesday night pushed them up to 68 points. Given their superior goal difference, even a point at Fulham on Sunday will be enough. Easier said than done though, given that the Cottagers deservedly beat Liverpool 3-2 last month.
Newcastle are in the box seat, having won 12 of their 18 home games this season. In front of a raucous St James’ Park, they will face an Everton side guaranteed 13th place and with nothing else to play for. Only City and Liverpool have scored more goals than Newcastle at home (40), and barring an unexpected meltdown, the Magpies should add Champions League qualification to the Carabao Cup they won earlier in the season. That would also make it far easier to hang on to their best players, like Alexander Isak.
The tie of the final round is undoubtedly at the City Ground, where Forest will hope to see off Chelsea. Forest have gone off the boil in the last two months, but Chelsea’s dismal away record (7 wins, 7 losses and 4 draws) will give Nuno Esperito Santo’s team hope. With Chris Wood fit again, and a capacity crowd to roar them on, don’t rule out an upset and a fairy-tale ending. For Chelsea, who have thrown the money around like confetti in the Todd Boehly years, another Champions League miss could have disastrous ramifications.
The dark horses are Villa, who have won four of their last five matches to go level on points with Chelsea and Newcastle. They visit Old Trafford, where United have won a miserable six of 18 matches. Ruben Amorim’s side have conceded 28 goals at home, but so much of what happens could depend on the Europa League final. Will Villa face a team buoyed by trophy success, or one reeling from the worst season in living memory?
Unai Emery will doubtless ask his players to treat Sunday’s game like a final, and after a season in which they’ve beaten the likes of Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, few would bet against them.
RevSportz prediction
Champions League qualification: Manchester City, Newcastle United and Aston Villa.
Missing out: Chelsea and Nottingham Forest.
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