The stage is set for an enthralling Australian Open 2025 women’s final, with two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka taking on an inspired Madison Keys. Both players have battled through a demanding fortnight to reach this moment, and while Sabalenka enters as the favourite, Keys’ fearless run to the final suggests this contest is far from a foregone conclusion.
Sabalenka has firmly established herself as a dominant force at Melbourne Park, having triumphed in the last two editions. A victory today would see her join an elite club of women who have won the Australian Open three times in a row in the Open Era—Margaret Court, Evonne Goolagong, Steffi Graf, Monica Seles, and Martina Hingis. The last player to achieve this feat was Hingis in 1999, making Sabalenka’s quest all the more special in the modern era of depth and competition.
The Belarusian’s success on hard courts can be attributed to a blend of raw power and refined mental toughness. Her thunderous serve, capable of reaching speeds that overwhelm opponents, is a crucial weapon. Complementing this is her relentless aggression from the baseline, particularly her ferocious forehand, which allows her to dictate rallies with authority. Over the years, Sabalenka has also improved her movement and shot selection, turning herself into a well-rounded force on the court.
In the 2025 edition, Sabalenka has showcased her usual dominance, losing just one set en route to the final. Despite early hiccups in the semifinal against Paula Badosa, she recovered swiftly to secure a convincing win. Her staggering 20-match winning streak in Melbourne and a near-perfect record in Australia over the past three seasons underline her affinity for this tournament. Additionally, she is undefeated in finals over the past year, a testament to her growing confidence and composure in high-pressure situations.
Standing in Sabalenka’s way is Madison Keys, a player known for her explosive game and unwavering determination. Keys has taken the long road to her second Grand Slam final, overcoming numerous challenges, including a dramatic semifinal victory over world No. 2 Iga Swiatek, where she saved match points to stage an extraordinary comeback. It’s been seven years since her last Major final at the 2017 US Open, and this time, she arrives with greater experience and mental resilience.
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Keys’ powerful serve and flat, aggressive groundstrokes can pose a serious challenge to Sabalenka, especially if she finds her rhythm early. Her ability to handle high-pressure moments has been on full display this fortnight, and victories over top-ranked players like Swiatek and Elena Rybakina have only boosted her confidence. If she maintains her consistency and serves well, Keys could disrupt Sabalenka’s rhythm and push her to the limit.
The head-to-head between the two favours Sabalenka, who leads 4-1, with their most recent encounter in Beijing last year ending in straight sets for the Belarusian. However, their clash in the 2023 US Open semifinals was a thriller, with Sabalenka scraping through in three sets, highlighting how closely matched they can be when Keys is at her best.
Heading into the final, Sabalenka has firmly captured the hearts of the Australian crowd with her passionate performances and quest for history. However, Keys will not be short on support either, having won over fans with her gritty performances and underdog story. The American enters this match with nothing to lose and everything to gain, making her a dangerous opponent.
Sabalenka is undoubtedly the favourite, but Keys’ fearless mindset and powerful game make her a formidable challenger. Expect an intense battle filled with high-octane rallies, powerful serves, and emotional swings. With history on the line and both players eager to leave their mark, this Australian Open final is set to be a blockbuster contest that fans won’t want to miss.